In a couple of posts of this series, I mentioned the problem with cyberattacks, and large impact hacks are the same. Either you never know, because it is in the company t best interest for the market to not know, or you know weeks after the fact.
Cyberattack on Toyota's supply chain shuts its 14 factories in Japan for 24 hours
Toyota Motor will restart domestic production from Wednesday after a cyberattack on a supplier ground the automaking giant's factories to a one-day halt, sparking concerns about vulnerability in Japan Inc's supply chain.
No information was available about who was behind the attack, nor the motive. It came just after Japan joined Western allies in clamping down on Russia in response to the invasion of Ukraine, although it was unclear whether the attack was related.
This Toyota news is a couple of weeks old, but not we have more information on exactly where they were hit (supplier), merely disruptive. I expect more, and more critical industry sectors to be hit by all types of cyberattack, not only state actors, it’s fairly easy to hire “cyber mercenaries”, and disrupt your adversary.
Medium to big sized companies would do well to start investing in cybersecurity, even though this is a two edge approach. Given enough effort, your systems will be broken into to. Like the following.
Chinese Hackers Target Taiwan's Financial Trading Sector with Supply Chain Attack
An advanced persistent threat (APT) group operating with objectives aligned with the Chinese government has been linked to an organized supply chain attack on Taiwan's financial sector.
The attacks are said to have first commenced at the end of November 2021, with the intrusions attributed to a threat actor tracked as APT10, also known as Stone Panda, the MenuPass group, and Bronze Riverside, and known to be active since at least 2009.
The second wave of attacks hit a peak between February 10 and 13, 2022, according to a new report published by Taiwanese cybersecurity firm CyCraft, which said the wide-ranging supply chain compromise specifically targeted the software systems of financial institutions, resulting in "abnormal cases of placing orders."
On to the unfolding food insecurity…
U.S. Grain Shipping Costs Soar With War and Drought Swinging Demand
You should read all post in this series (or read most of my posts to understand how this was an avoidable disaster), to get a picture on how insecure in terms of food access, and prices we are. The current woes in the oil industry already affected the prices, and as covered in this Substack, the prices of fertilizer would only go up without further disruptions. They came nonetheless.
Here it is how far the rabbit hole and the mess goes (further, in fact).
Weather will be erratic throughout the entire year, the US is experiencing a severe drought, water might be an issue in some farmlands, it is absolutely a disaster in California (a state that has a lot of farmland, and raises a lot of food…), prices of everything are crushing the margins.
I didn’t even go down the spare part’s shortage, which by the current trends in metal, energy, “anything” markets will only get worse, steel shortage, etc.
I posted on Twitter, but I know a decent portion of my Subscriber don’t follow me on Twitter, so here, one of my cryptic forecasts that simply becomes true.
The total yield for grains in 2022 will be minus 7% to minus 19%, unless we are faced with a major disaster. This is already a disaster, and it will not only impact food security, and create public unrest, and conflict for resources between nearby nations, it will affect grain prices, and other commodities for the next 5 years.
Unforeseen disaster would have calamitous consequences.
SA farmers battle to control locust swarms of biblical proportions
Farmers in the Northern Cape, Western Cape and Eastern Cape Karoo are struggling to control the locust swarms that have damaged and consumed thousands of hectares of grazing land.
According to Agri SA, this is one of the biggest locust swarms in years and, with the assistance of donors and the Department of Agriculture, farmers are trying everything to save their land and food.
Another marginal interest of mine was always the (weird back in 2019) locust swarms, which has been plaguing Africa for the last 2 and a half years. Since 2021 crops have already affected by it, which puts further strain in the region.
Reminder that sometimes these swarms go around THE PLANET…
War in Ukraine Has Argentina Reverting to Protectionist Playbook
Intervention in food markets marks a win for Kirchner policies
Black Sea crop upheaval offers justification for meddling
Agricultural powerhouse Argentina is meddling in export markets again as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fans food inflation, providing the perfect cover for a rekindling of protectionist tendencies.
The ruling coalition that took office in 2019 is packed with officials who support intervention in crop and beef markets to secure supplies and suppress prices for Argentines, 41% of whom live below the poverty line.
Lebanon is already on the verge of a food collapse, strived from cash, and unable to compete with rich countries. I know it is depressing to be aware of all this, but you need to, to be prepared, the events unfolding in front of your eyes are all connected, and will have a global impact.
As usual, I already forecasted countries will resort to Resource Nationalism in the face of food insecurity, regardless of financial gains. No use having 5 trillions extras dollars and end up in the gallows because 20% of your population starved for a few weeks.
Here is something from a subscriber.
Reporting a few additional information from Hungary connected to your post:
1. animal farms are complaining that Hungarian farmers are keeping their crops in silos and waiting for better market price to make profit. But animal farms are short on stocks and can not feed animals and food prices will further increase. (my parents have crops and they are doing the same)
2. Hungary has many car manufacturers. Regarding Ukraine situation the manufacturers are nearly stopped producing anything. The reason is that 5 factories in Ukraine were supplying them with pre-produced wire looms and all factories are completely offline.
China announces recurrence of ASF
China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) detected a recurrence of African swine fever in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in northwest China, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture said in a Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.
In the last 4 years, China was plagued by ASF epidemics, at the highest epidemic point, they lost over half of their herd, which impact prices of feed, and animal protein globally. This is a huge struggle to them, and now to the world.
As I often mention, I have been following this for over a year, specially the spread throughout the world. China overcompensate last year for the lost herd, and now they have a oversupply, low prices, and some of their farmers might find themselves in liquidity difficulties.
The rebuild of their herd was so strong, they had to import more corn, and barley. This is something very important to keep in mind, wherever the ASF shifts to, it will impact food security to the entire planet, and China will most likely outbid ANY competitor (as they do in the LNG markets).
A random news I stumbled upon 2 days ago was this. Animal Food Contraband from China Remains at Record Levels at LA/LB Seaport
Bird flu case forces killing of 5.3 million chickens in Iowa
State agriculture officials say the confirmation of bird flu at another Iowa egg-laying farm will force the killing of more than 5 million chickens
85,000 birds euthanized as South Dakota sees first avian flu outbreak since 2015
As I covered in the last post, and as ASF for over a year, you can now witness the unfodling disaster with your own eyes. I sounded the alarm enough times that now, I am not affected by the encompassing spread of this disease.
You can read a bigger post here, and my two Twitter threads, starting November 2020, here, and here.
AdBlue prices to rise 170% amid shortage, predicts German economic association
AdBlue prices could increase by 170% in near future due to the limited production of the reagent, warns BWVL, a German economic association. According to its prediction, the increases will put supply chains under even more pressure.
From another article, months ago.
“In most of the modern diesels, there’s a chemical added to the system called AdBlue,” Clark told the ABC.
“A lot of the AdBlue, or the chemical that goes into making it, is imported from China.
“The supply of that chemical urea has dried up from China. And hence, there’s now a massive shortage of AdBlue In this country.”
“Our industry isn’t the only one that will be affected, but we will be hit first and hardest,” Clark said. “These issues go beyond NatRoad and the trucking industry.”
Diesel Exhaust Fluid, known globally as AdBlue, is mandate by law in many countries. The lack of this component will grind trucking to a halt, further impacting and impact global supply chains.
After China dried up the supply, you could source this from a few other countries, the major supplier being Russia…oh…
If you are a trucker, or own a trucking company/logistics, I would advise you to secure a decent sized supply, from different places. You don’t want to tip off the competition, or the market itself, by moving aggressively. Do businesses like the Special Operations. Unseen, unheard, unspoken.
East Coast ports about to get slammed by a lot more ships
Capacity of Asia-East Coast services to jump 40% vs. 2020-2021 average
Data from project44 shows the same worsening performance trend. Delays in arrival times for services from China to New York/New Jersey are increasing, with services from Shenzhen delayed an average of 20.9 days in February, services from Shanghai 14.5 days and from Tianjin 14.3 days. In the case of Shanghai and Shenzhen, delays are up by over 100% year on year.
Last post I said the American coast was about to get hammered down with ships, and causing further logistical strain, repeat the last year mess, and cause further delays, and further affect shipping rates, and everything else. Well, here we are, and both coasts might suffer the same fate. 100% mess, guaranteed.
And people still think China is just coincidentally doing certain moves, and pressuring the exact points in the system.
Billionaire supermarket CEO: Buy now, food inflation will only get much worse
John Catsimatidis says food prices could increase 20% by summer
John Catsimatidis, the billionaire owner and CEO of New York City supermarket chain Gristedes, urged Americans to "buy" now because food inflation will only get much worse.
"I've seen price increases coming through for the month of March. I've seen them coming through April and May. Between price increases and shrinkflation -- where it used to be 32 ounces, now it's going to be 28 ounces – it's anywhere from a 12 to a 20% increase in food prices," Catsimatidis told Brian Kilmeade on "Fox & Friends," Tuesday.
This is what I call a marker, pieces of information you repeatedly see within X timeframe, and this is a major one. Also, not the first one, I covered this before, other CEOs from similar companies in Europe.
Anyone who has been reading this series of posts is aware of my forecasts and trend analysis. You probably know in your gut too, but don’t want to accept, because, reasons.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine aggravated already-soaring lumber prices, and they're about to start seeing even bigger swings
Such sanctions could rattle ll’prices further. Russia is the largest lumber exporter in the world, and its forest-product exports were worth more than $12 billion last year, said trade journal Canadian Forest Industries, which cited data from Wood Resource Quarterly.
Even before the war began, lumber prices were volatile. In January, they fell 15%. Since February 1, they've soared 55%. Just prior to Russia launching attacks on Ukraine February 24, a report from the Wall Street Journal noted prices of leading lumber futures were so wild that they ended at daily limits in 25 of 35 trading sessions this year.
I have covered the lumber prices few weeks ago, and now, I come again. I wasn’t even aware Russia was the largest lumber exporter in the world, so… I don’t have snark comments about this one, you can expect higher lumber prices for the entire year, or most of it.
2 and a half months ago, I said countries would go back to nuclear. Aaaaannnnd…
Belgium to Extend Life of Nuclear Reactors for Another Decade
U.K.’s Johnson to Meet With Nuclear Industry in Bid to Speed Building
Macron Pledges New Nuclear Reactors - if He’s Re-Elected
Czech Republic opens tender for new nuclear reactor
France caused this to itself, and insisted on it.
Spain, Gas Supplier Algeria Hit Standoff Over Disputed Territory
Algerian ambassador to Madrid recalled for consultations
Spanish tilt toward Morocco on Western Sahara carries risks
Algeria, Spain’s biggest natural-gas supplier, recalled its ambassador to Madrid for consultations after the Spanish government took Morocco’s side in a North African territorial dispute.
The friction over the status of Western Sahara could spell trouble for Spain at a time when countries across Europe are seeking alternate sources of gas after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Spain signaled on Friday that it backs Moroccan plans to grant limited autonomy to the territory, which has been a historic source of tension with Algeria.
The weird timing to antagonize one of your main energy supplier, while under a nationwide trucker strike, grinding your economy to a halt. Still, odd disruptions like this are important to bear in mind, and write it down. Realignment will be the norm for the foreseeable future, in my opinion.
LME’s Copper Industry Group Recommends Banning Russian Metal
Exchange’s copper committee held vote in favor of measure
Russia is world’s third largest exporter of refined copper
There is already a cooper shortage going on, Europe biggest copper mine was affect by energy prices last year, I doubt the current predicament is any different, and dried the inventory further.
At some point, my autistic mind points me to someone reading my (paper) notebook, and adapting what I wrote and inflicting it upon the world. Because these are massive, shortsighted, emotional decisions that are disruption to the green push.
I guess everything has a good side.
You should read this post, to be specific, the article about the mysterious Aluminum stockpile. Did you read it, and came back ? Time to make you go “WTF”. Here is the archive, because for whatever reason, this specific article was scrubbed, but you can find a similar one elsewhere.
In fact, whenever I research about different stockpiles, inside different countries, by using different methods and routes, I always end up finding the same. China, somehow, via legal loopholes, owns it. Really makes you think.
US Pharmacopeia report finds high reliance on Indian manufacturers for APIs
A report on global API supply chain vulnerabilities indicates the outsized importance of and dependency on overseas manufacturers
US pharma: a fragile supply chain
The US’ reliance on overseas API manufacturers means its supplies of essential medicines – from antibiotics to painkillers – are precarious. A study published last year by the Center for Analytics and Business Insights (CABI) at Washington University’s Olin Business School revealed that less than 5% of large-scale API manufacturing sites are in the US.
The lack of API manufacturing presence in the US is largely due to “the ‘race to the bottom’ on pricing against global players, lower input costs, and lesser regulatory burdens” in overseas facilities, the report found.
If this isn’t critical for national security, specially for a overly sick nation like the US, I don’t know what is.
One thing is certain. This year will be full of surprises.
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New bird flu strain found in Pacific Northwest:
"OREGON-- The Oregon Department of Agriculture confirmed a highly pathogenic avian influenza strain has been found in the Pacific Northwest.
According to officials, the Eurasian strain called H5N1 is highly contagious and deadly. It is found in domestic poultry."
https://www.kezi.com/news/new-bird-flu-strain-found-in-pacific-northwest/article_9a8516b0-a7f6-11ec-83b1-676d54e21c7c.html"
Hungary had already Adblue crisis last October: https://totalcar.hu/magazin/kozelet/2021/10/22/ha-elfogy-az-adblue-megall-minden-es-most-elfogyott