While being in the rural parts of somewhere, hiking, I am still doing what I do, just with a lot less stress đ. A picture is worth a thousand words. Analysis below the picture.
Analysis:
As the major and most important story of the last few days, itâs the first one. As Iâve said since I first wrote the Nova Swan concept, China would play a larger game, a long term one using historical trends and forecasting analysis to see what most ignore.
Everything pointed out to food insecurity throughout 2022-2028 for reasons unknown. What any person with a shred of common sense could see, âexpertsâ now do, and China has been driving food inflation among other variables.
At this point it is the fate of many western nations to experience rising food inflation and food insecurity for at least the next 24 months while China is set to withstand any âblack swanâ event or lower yield on global crops.
Commented a few times on Twitter that countries would stop exporting their main grains and animal protein for whatever reasons they could think, until they couldnât lie anymore. Hybrid warfare tactics will also come into play, like faking Mad Cow cases, to suddenly stop the export of beef, and cause a 15%-25% drop in the internal market of specific exporters.
Since there is no possible way out of the logistics mess we see ourselves in, players should hedge accordingly next year. Protectionism and short term thinking will be the norm, new alliances for those with eyes to see and a couple of working brains in their staff.
China hoards over half the world's grain, pushing up global prices
China is maintaining its food stockpiles at a "historically high level," says the head of grain reserves at the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration. "There is no problem whatsoever about the supply of food." 1
Over the past five years, China's soybean, maize and wheat imports soared two- to twelvefold on aggressive purchases from the U.S., Brazil and other supplier nations. Imports of beef, pork, dairy and fruit jumped two- to fivefold.
Throughout history, food shortages have triggered popular unrest. They served as a contributing factor to uprisings that toppled Chinese dynasties.
EU Weighs Sweeping New Powers to Maintain Supplies During Crises
The new mechanism may include third-country export controls
The proposal replicates U.S. tools and is expected in spring 2
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-over-half-the-world-s-grain-pushing-up-global-prices
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-24/eu-weighs-sweeping-new-powers-to-maintain-supplies-during-crises?utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business
https://www.producer.com/crops/nitrogen-fertilizer-shortage-expected-to-drive-down-yields-worldwide/