I seldom send short e-mails, or make short posts, but this one is rather important not to, I will just add concerning trends that fit with the theme. I recommend you to read this post.
Virus post coming later today, Reverse AIDS Part IV tomorrow.
Which is basically an argument for the weather shift we experienced, and will continue to.
If you follow my Substack or Twitter, you have come to read every other day about a specific issue, the fertilizer shortage, in my opinion one of the biggest problems for food inflation and scarcity this year, and next year. And then, we got this.
Bayer Declares Force Majeure, Says Production of Glyphosate May be Curtailed
Pesticide and seed producer Bayer said on Monday a supplier of an ingredient for its widely used herbicide glyphosate has run into technical problems which may hamper Bayer's output of the product in the short term.
The "mechanical failure" at Bayer's supplier comes in addition to a tight supply situation in global crop chemical markets, in part due to the global pandemic, Bayer added.
In a letter on Friday seen by Reuters, Bayer alerted industrial customers using glyphosate to the supply issue, declaring force majeure, which typically suspends a supplier's contractual liabilities in the wake of disruptions beyond its control.
In the letter, Bayer said repairs at its supplier would take about three months.
The spokesperson said the manufacturing issue would also affect in-house production of its own glyphosate-containing brands such as Roundup.
Which isn’t something new by no metric, by the looks of it.
Reports of short supplies of glyphosate and glufosinate concern growers; manufacturers confident in supply
April 30, 2021
Bayer's Glyphosate Plant Back Online After Idled by Ida for Weeks, Widespread Glyphosate and Glufosinate Shortages Persist
This one from October.
So these shortages, as with every single other one, is not new, but intensifying, and now something I mentioned in a couple of posts. The slowdown in Chinese factories, the lack of raw material and the expensive energy would catch up with other industries, and things would start breakingdown, and you can’t fix because you lack a 2 dollar washer, or a 5 dollar cheaply produce part…from China.
Again, sometimes I feel rather moronic, repeating myself. Any sort of recovery, even if things go right this year, will happen only Q2/Q3 2023. Also, worth to make a literal annotation, you will see more and more force majeure and Act of God clauses popping up.
This entire thread is worth skimming through, and I often link to it.
How this all connects with The Year Without Summer 2 ? Like this. Out of season droughts, and in weird places, changing crops seasons, affecting yield. You add less fertilizer, less pesticides.
The only thing we need for a complete disaster is a locust plague.
Well…fuck.
DF - Of pesticides, droughts
A shortage of glyphosate is a good thing. That stuff should be banned. The rest of the supply chain issues, not so good.